Global warming is genuine, some of the warmth of degree causes more harmful weather conditions | Credit: WMO/Joao Murteira
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates there is an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years (2025-2029) will be hotter than 2024.
WMO forecasts confirm that global temperatures remain record levels or near the next five years, increasing the risks of climate change and social, economic and development impacts.
Organization’s Report It warns that global warming is expected to continue. The global average near-annual surface temperature for each year from 2025 to 2029 is projected to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C from the annual average between 1850 and 1900.
More harmful heat waves, rain, droughts
“Some additional warming drives more extreme weather conditions, harmful heat waves, extreme rainfall events, severe drought, melting ice sheets, melting sea ice and glaciers, heating the sea, and everything that promotes sea level rise,” the report says.
According to WMO, there is an 86% chance that it will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least a year.
The report predicts a 70% chance of global warming over the five-year period from 2025 to 2029 if the average warming exceeds 1.5°C. This is up from 47% in last year’s report (2024-2028 period) to 32% in 2023-2027 report.
“We’ve only just gone through a record 10 years. Unfortunately, this WMO report will not provide any signs of rest in the coming years. This means it will have a negative impact on our economy, our daily lives, our weather conditions, our ecosystems and our planets.”
Other key points in the report:
- Arctic warming The next five extended winters (November to March) are projected to be more than 3.4 times the global average, exceeding the average temperature for the last 30-year baseline period (1991-2020), 2.4°C.
- Sea ice prediction Further declines in sea ice concentrations in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Okotsk Sea from March 2025 to 202 have been suggested.
- Predicted precipitation patterns Compared to baselines from 1991 to 2020, September 2025 suggests wetier conditions than averages in the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska and North Siberia, and the average conditions in the Amazon this season.
- In recent years, Except for 2023, the South Asia region It is wetter than average, and predictions suggest this trend Continue Period 2025-2029. This may not apply to all individual seasons during this period.
