The outcome of the war in Ukraine is also taking place in space. The American Starlink satellite network is now essential to the Ukrainian military and provides connectivity to ground forces.
But billionaire Elon Musk, an unpredictable nature of its owner, worries about Kiev and the European Union.
“In fact, Elon Musk is the guardian of Ukrainian ties on the battlefield. It’s a strategic vulnerability,” warns Arthur de Liedkerke, senior director of European affairs at Rasmussen Global.
However, MEP Christophe Grudler, part of the Renewable European Parliamentary Group, argues that the EU has alternatives that can compete with the American network.
“There’s clearly a way to replace Starlink,” he says.
However, there is no need to hurry and rely on this possibility, as it takes time to replace Starlink’s vast satellite network.
“If Starlink decides to reduce the signal today, it is clear that there is an option to use Govsatcom, especially in particular. This is to be the European network we served and to make up for missing Starlink signals in Ukraine from June, if necessary,” he explained.
Govsatcom is about making existing government space features available. The purpose of this system is to provide a reliable and secure network for public EU agencies. Ukraine has already shown interest in the system.
According to Christophe Gurdler, this solution is not a problem.
“The European Union is very committed to supporting Ukraine, so if the Starlink signal is no longer in the future, there will certainly be an agreement to come from all member states to help Ukraine,” he said.
However, Arthur de Liedekerke, senior director of European affairs at political consulting firm Rasmussen Global, has some reservations on this option.
“Govsatcom is a government-safe satellite communication, providing reliable, secure, strategically autonomous networks for intergovernmental communication services in the EU. It has not been able to replace the kind of battlefield connectivity that we are discussing about Ukraine,” he says.
“So, it’s not a silver bullet at this point.”
Industrial Solutions
Another option is to rely on Eutelsat. Franco-British Company also chooses a low-earth orbit network, allowing Starlink to offer comparable quality of service.
However, the size of both companies is asymmetric. Starlink has 7,000 satellites compared to Eutelsat’s 630. However, Eutelsat has 35 satellites in Earth orbit, far from Earth.
The Eutelsat option poses industrial and commercial issues. Starlink has around 40,000 terminals in Ukraine, and it is not just used by the military. Also, civilians use it to connect to the internet and make phone calls.
In contrast, Eutelsat has 2,000 devices on-site. A further 4,000 will soon be rolling out, with an additional 10,000 devices being placed. Finally, the price of Starlink Terminal is estimated at 500 euros, while the Eutelsat equipment costs around 9,000 euros.
However, European companies have political advantages, and the main one of them is that they are not dependent on the US.
“Eutelsat is our European champion, we have a compelling and functional solution, and we need to support it through funding and political will,” said Arthur de Liedekerke.
Future solutions
The final medium-term option exists in the form of an IRIS2 project (infrastructure for satellite resilience, interconnection and security).
This network of 290 multi-orbit satellites provides secure connectivity services to the EU in low and medium Earth orbits.
The constellations provide low latency in the form of ultra-fast transmissions that are close to the performance of terrestrial networks.
A 12-year public-private concession agreement for the development and operation of IRIS2 was awarded to Spacerise.
The consortium includes Hispasat in Spain, SES in Luxembourg, Heavyweight Thales in the Space Sector, OHB, Airbus Defense Space, Telespasio, Deutsche Telekom, Orange and Hissdesat.
However, IRIS2 still has a long way from implementation as the system will not work perfectly until 2030.
However, Christophe Gurdler, the poster for the project in the European Parliament, is confident that the service will be available sooner.
“From 2028 there will be an operational IRIS2 zodiac sign that can provide telecommunications services to all member countries.
According to Arthur de Liedkerke, this diversity is essential.
“It’s having a choice. It’s not having a single point of failure. It’s saying no to one and still can go online. And today we’re not in a situation where we can do that,” he explained.
“We put the connectivity of Ukrainian war zones into the hands of one man… it’s a strategic vulnerability. By having choices, by having alternatives, by diversifying partnerships, by having alternatives, by avoiding that single point of failure.”
