When Trump won the 2025 US election, many analysts and outlets saw his victory catalyze a swing to the right among European voters. The right-wing leaders and movements of Europe celebrate his victory, viewing it as support for their stance on issues such as immigration and climate change, hopefully it empowers their own political parties.
In contrast, after the announcement of the “liberation date” of tariffs on European exports and the polishing meeting between President Voldeemee Zelensky and President Trump, others thought it could have a negative impact on right-wing parties and rise to the left.
However, a recent survey by the Brussels-based think tank, the European Policy Centre, assessed voting data and political events across Europe before and after Trump’s election — shows that Trump has not in effect influenced European voting patterns at all.
“At the election level, the EU is very independent from the US. European voting behavior is primarily influenced by internal factors and does not change according to American political movements.” This is not true in all sectors, including markets and technical regulations. He said it is more closely linked to the dynamics of the US, but “Trump has not changed his voting preferences in Europe.”
At the local level
Research shows that at the regional level, support for the right-hand parties of the European People’s Party group showed little change between October 2024 and April 2025. Most countries, such as Austria, Germany, Spain, and Portugal, maintain stable voter support.
Some countries, such as the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Italy, consistently showed high support for right-wing parties, but this support has remained stable throughout the last few months. Other countries with low far-right support, such as Sweden, Slovenia, Denmark and Finland, have also not experienced any major changes.
However, Romania was an exception to the rules, the author of the report said. “They were not included in the research database because of reliability issues with election data after the removal of results,” Carbonel said, citing Romania’s controversial 2024 presidential election.
Overall, across Europe, the average level of voter support for more right-wing parties stayed around 24-25%.
Meanwhile, public opinion opposed Trump. A survey by LeGrandContinent and Cluster 17 shows that only 6% to 8% of German, Spanish and French citizens identify him as a “allier.” In countries such as Denmark, Sweden, Germany and France, indicators tracking US reputation showed a 20-30 percentage point decline, according to YouGov. This is not surprising, the study says that Trump’s economic policies are undermining the favorable voting base for right-wing ideas like the cognac and wine sectors in France and Italy.
Would you like to make Europe great again?
The report states that attempting to mobilize Trump’s ratios had limited impact. Examples include the “Make Europe Great” summit hosted by Vox, Spain, Madrid, or the interview with Elon Musk with AFD’s Alice Weidel.
“These efforts did not fail, but they were countered,” Carbonel said.
“Unlike Canada, where Trump’s victory had an impact on the recovery of the liberals and the decline of the Conservatives, European voters acted according to internal factors,” Kernel said.
“Our research shows that support for the EU’s right-wing and far-right parties is a strong distrust of the political system, low economic growth, increased inequality, increased cultural changes associated with diversity and migration. “There is also a backlash against the political progress of sustainability, feminism, diversity, and diversity. And all countries have their particularities. In Spain, territorial conflict with Catalonia is a key factor.”
