The British woke up last Friday to a picture of the whimsical Nigel Farge.
Reform leaders, anti-immigrants and populist right-wing parties, which have surged in polls in recent months, have celebrated the narrow victory of candidates in by-elections in Northwest England constituencies in Runcorn and Helsby.
Under his glorious smile, Faraj showed how tight the race was by lifting up six fingers and representing six votes.
“It could be a small margin, but it’s a big win,” he said, congratulating his colleague Sarah Pochin.
Overturning the majority of Labour’s nearly 15,000 votes in Runcorn and Helsby was indeed a major victory, but the reform performance in local elections last Thursday sent an even more astounding political message to the enemy.
The reform has gained control of 10 out of 23 councils and is competing for 677 out of 1,600 seats. It also ended in two mayoral elections first. One took place in Greater Lincolnshire and the other in Hull & East Yorkshire.
Conversely, conservatives and support for labour, and historically dominant forces in British politics have collapsed. The parties lost 674 seats and 187 local seats, respectively, and neither of them gained control of a single council.
When the scale of his success began to emerge, Farage said the country is currently experiencing “a totally different politics.”
“We are currently the Labour opposition in the UK, and the Tories are a waste of space,” he declared.
Beyond the politics of two parties
Over the past week, many political commentators have suggested that decades of political reproduction in the UK could end.
“The results confirm that we are in a four- or five-person politics era,” said Tim Bale, a political professor at Queen Mary University in London. “Fragmentation of the party system has actually continued since the mid-1970s, but has accelerated considerably over the last few years.”
“And as a result, we have seen the control of labour.
Reforms came first in local elections, but the Liberal Democrats also worked, invading many of the former Tory’s bases.
The rise of reform is the result of the failure of traditional political parties that did not explicitly improve people’s lives and public services, and is the result of over-appreciation and underwear trends, according to Veil, who points to growing impatience at the speed of political change.
Labor issues, crisis for conservatives
Political analysts told Euronows that Farage’s victory had challenged labor last Thursday, but it poses a much greater threat to conservatives.
With the next general election not required to be held until 2029, the ruling Labour Party still has up to four years to set the agenda and bring about the changes they have promised, experts said.
Government success could deprive reform of its popularity.
“They want what the parties once offered — economic growth, improved living standards, relatively good public services — to voters in the end, than the emotional performance politics that they get from leaders like Nigel Farage,” Bale said.
But the Conservatives, who did something tragic in the July general election after 14 years in power, have no strong hands.
Robert Ford, a political scientist at the University of Manchester, warns that local elections do not always indicate voting behaviour in general elections, but said Tories could face an “existential crisis” at the national level.
“The most successful election winning machine in British history, and one of the most successful in global democratic history, was absolutely knocked on the canvas here,” he said, referring to this year’s local elections, far from their performance four years ago.
“They are not going anywhere from the 2021 party anywhere from the 2025 party.
Ford pointed out that unlike labor, there are fewer opportunities to use at their disposal, making it difficult for Tories to rebuild their brand against them.
According to the latest YouGov vote, if a general election is held tomorrow, 9% of 2024 Labour voters will choose to reform, as well as 26% of conservative voters.
Still, it may be too early to declare Tory dead, said Patrick English, director of political analysis at YouGov.
“The two most established parties in British politics have survived everything that has been thrown over the past 120 years, so neither should be written down,” the English said.
“In the final months of voting, and the general election, it means that workers and conservatives are currently facing serious structural challenges against their voter coalition and supporters’ foundations that are not properly equipped to deal with properly,” he added.
Agriculturalism trap
Both workers and conservatives need to focus on themselves, Ford said they need to focus on themselves, rather than being seduced by the politics of the monkey Farage. He cited examples of immigration and the pledge of conservative former Prime Minister Rishi Snack to “stop boats” immigrants from Europe.
“They are trying to offer people a pound shop, knockoff fraage. But no one wants it. Why do you accept knockoff when you can get the original?” he said.
Labor should also be wary, he warned. “They need to fight this battle on this terrain, not on the terrain of Faraj. It must be a home fixture, not an away fixture.”
Both traditional political parties hope that the reform struggles under the scrutiny of dominating local councils, or that it will suffer from the fragmentation that radical right parties tend to tend to.
Asked if Farage could become prime minister in the coming years, Ford said “it’s not the most likely outcome yet,” but “it’s a much more plausible outcome than a week ago.”
“These are kind of consequences in terms of the depth, breadth and strength of support that Farage needs if he is a reliable candidate for power,” he said.
English, a political analyst at YouGov, said that time alone conveys. “Currently there is nothing in the data that can suggest that Farage and Refement UK will disappear anytime soon.”
“In fact, there are a lot of things that suggest opposition that their support continues to grow. But we are years away from the next general election and a lot can happen in the meantime.”
Death of “past the first post”?
One of the clearest clarifications of the outcome of local elections is the possibility of changing the UK’s first Past (FPTP) system.
For example, Labour won 412 of 650 seats, with just 33.7% of votes in last year’s general election.
However, with the growing popularity of reform, it is not only the two major parties that can benefit disproportionately from the current system. The Farage party was similarly proven in local elections, winning around 31% of the vote, but a much higher percentage of councillors.
The UK’s changing political landscape may have begun to change minds among those who have always supported FPTP.
“If you are a conservative or labor politician or activist or voter who views the Nigel Farage majority government as the worst of all possible outcomes, there is only one electoral system that will result in that outcome: FPTP.
“Election reform is not just about what it allows, but about what it prevents.”
