The Energy Information Bureau’s long distance outlook predicts a decline in oil demand, flatline natural gas production and greater confidence in renewables by 2050.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has stuck to previous forecasts that domestic oil demand will decline over the next decade, but flatlines and nuclear-free renewables in natural gas production continue to grow. However, he noted that the April document was based on “assumptions” that have changed dramatically since President Donald Trump returned to the White House.
In fact, the EIA said analysts were discovered when developing the outlook that “US energy consumption in 2050 is lower in more scenarios than in 2024.”
The EIA forecast is based on a scenario compiled in December, when President Joe Biden was still in office. The EIA falls under the Department of Energy, which collects and analyzes energy-related statistics.
“In most cases we modeled, we only looked at the laws and regulations that were in place as of December 2024,” the EIA outlook explained. “It does not include laws, regulations, enforcement measures, and court decisions beyond that date.”
Energy Department spokesman Andrea Woods said the outlook essentially ignores important scenario changes events, such as administrative measures and rafts of regulatory actions that Trump has taken since taking office in January. But it serves as a record of the path in which America’s energy production took place before Trump was elected.
Of the 125 executive actions issued by Trump since January, those over 30 have so far been linked to promoting energy production under the President’s “American Energy” policy, using the country’s rich oil, gas and coal reserves to generate the electricity they need to generate electricity at an affordable price, and exclude federal debt while meeting the demand needed to export $37 Trillion Mass.
The outlook “reflects the disastrous path of America’s energy production under the Biden administration, a path firmly rejected by the American people last November,” she said. “By unlocking affordable, reliable and safe energy, this administration ensures that America’s future is marked by energy growth and abundance.
EIA analysts made educated speculations, or “set of assumptions,” in December, based on a scenario changer that appears to be obvious before Trump arrives at his oval office.
Among them is the EU estimates of tailpipe emission rules for power plants and vehicles. Also, California’s 2035 zero-emission vehicle sales mission is “not in place” by the end of 2025.
According to the EIA, the 2025 outlook also includes “significant updates,” including the addition of the hydrogen market module. Carbon capture, allocation, transport and sequestration modules. Enhanced upstream oil and natural gas resource modules.
“We have also strengthened many existing modules to better reflect the dynamics of the market and emerging technologies,” EIA said.
Fossil fuels, renewable energy
The Norfolk Southern train is located near the University of North Carolina’s Energy Generation Plant after delivering coal to its facility in Chapel Hill, North Carolina on August 11, 2022. Jonathan Drake/Reuter
Despite exclusions and strengthening, forecasts remained the same as in two years. Oil production and consumption will decline in the coming decades, but demand for natural gas remains stable, but will increase slightly by 2050.
Of course, Trump has issued executive orders and policy directives designed to “unleash Alaska’s energy,” repealing Biden’s restrictions to offshore oil and gas leases.
Last year’s record production by 48 states last year was the highest export year ever for domestic operators, excluding the annual export records set in 2023, but slowed significantly after oil production rose 14% in 2023 and 14% in 2022.
By 2050, the EIA is projected to reduce US crude oil production by 0.7%, oil consumption will decrease by 0.8%, and prices will increase by 0.5-0.6% compared to inflation.
Woods rejected the forecast, saying it was based on the assumption that “laws and regulations that are in effect as of December 2024 will remain in effect until 2050.”
However, forecasts reflect what forecasts the product analysts and the industry itself reflect.
On March CERA Week by S&P Global in Houston, Texas, Occident Petroleum CORP CEO Vicki Hollub and Conocophillips CEO Ryan Lance were among executives who predicted that US oil production would peak between 2027 and 2030 and that plateau would peak over the next decade.
Among the reasons they cited in slower “production growth” is that by injecting carbon dioxide into existing wells and pumping up to 20% more oil in shale reservoirs, the pressure on greater shareholder profits in increasing production.
However, exports of liquefied natural gas are projected to almost double between the outlook projects 2025 and 2050.
S&P Global’s 2024 outlook predicts that “surgent increases” for 2023 and 2026 are projected to be 2025 and 2023, so that by 2023 and 2023, “natural gas demand in the electricity sector” will fall by 12%, and that “surgent increases” in natural gas prices nurtured by 2023 and 2023 (export) feeding escalation.” Feed gas is natural gas that is converted to liquefied natural gas.
Under this scenario, S&P said, “Coal could also curb market share from gas from 2025 as it would lead to a reversal to coal from 2025-24-24.”
Demand for EIA’s 2025 outlook project will continue to decline for two years, along with about a third of today’s demand.
“Last week,” Woods said, Trump and the Energy Department “announced a series of new actions that modernize US coal technology and promote coal-fired power generation.”
The 2025 outlook by EIA analysts does not believe that nuclear energy has progressed beyond its current use in power generation. We expect nuclear energy to peak in 2026, with a bit of soaking by 2036 and a slight decline until 2050, with a relatively flatness.
S&P Global’s 2024 outlook for oil and gas “large build-outs of renewable energy,” especially in the context of power generation, and partially a decline in solar and wind, with much of these energy being “behind the meter” and not linked to the grid, generating relatively small amounts of electricity.
The EIA outlook estimates that renewable energy production will double by the mid-2030s and almost double by 2050, with a 6.7% increase per year.
