Hungary is known within the European Union for opposing Ukraine’s EU membership proposal and pledging to veto it, threatening the start of negotiations with Kiev.
However, Hungary’s stance on enlargement is a delicate balancing act, as Prime Minister Viktor Orbán strongly supports efforts by the Western Balkans, Moldova and Georgia to join the EU.
The Hungarian government has stated that Russia is responsible for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and called for an immediate ceasefire and peace negotiations.
Hungary provides humanitarian aid and electricity to Ukraine, but opposes any financial or military support to Kiev.
Budapest’s argument is that further European support would only prolong the war, lead to military escalation, and endanger peace in Europe.
Hungary has come under intense scrutiny from some European partners for maintaining political and trade ties with Russia through energy purchases.
Why is Hungary so opposed to Ukraine joining the EU?
Hungary is the region’s most vocal opponent of Ukraine’s EU bid, arguing that Ukraine’s membership would be detrimental to Europe and Hungary in particular.
In this regard, the vote, which Orbán was conspicuously absent from, leaves Budapest in the minority among European leaders who have started negotiations with Ukraine in 2023.
Budapest said the Hungarian government this year launched a non-binding national opinion poll on Ukraine’s approach to EU membership, the so-called National Consultation, in which 95% of respondents opposed Ukraine’s membership in the EU.
“I don’t want our new members to be part of an alliance that is always at risk of war and could involve us in a war. If Ukrainians become members of the alliance, this war will also be our war, and we don’t want that,” Prime Minister Orbán told reporters at the European Council in Brussels last week.
Hungary has also repeatedly said that ceding territory to Russia for a ceasefire would violate the country’s constitution, but insists that Ukraine’s eastern borders are not fixed and that it is not opposed to possible concessions.
Budapest also argues that Ukraine’s EU membership would be costly for Europe, as a large part of Europe’s common budget could be diverted to rebuilding Ukraine.
Ukraine could also benefit from the bloc’s cohesion and agricultural funds. Budapest is the net beneficiary of both. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this expansion would inevitably lead to amendments to the common budget.
As an alternative, Prime Minister Orban proposed a strategic partnership with Ukraine, which has already been in place since 2017, when Kiev signed the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.
What about the expansion of the Western Balkans?
Hungary, on the other hand, supports EU enlargement to the Western Balkans, including Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Hungary’s European Affairs Minister János Boka said in October that their position was clearly within the European Union.
“While the Western Balkan countries have met most of the conditions for membership for years, they have not progressed at the pace they deserve,” Boca said.
Budapest argues that enlargement will increase stability in the region.
“If there is no stability in the Western Balkans, there is turmoil, and conflicts define daily life, it is clear that uncertainty will constantly radiate from the region,” Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said in July last year.
Hungary has strong business interests in the region, particularly in energy and banking. Budapest also maintains relations with neighboring Serbia. The two countries cooperate closely in the areas of trade, migration, energy and defense.
What about Moldova and Georgia?
Hungary supports Moldova’s accession to the EU without any preconditions.
“Hungary has always supported Moldova’s accession to the EU and will continue to do so. There will be no compromises or debates on this,” Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said earlier this year, adding that Moldova provides the EU with much-needed labor.
Hungary also supports Georgia’s accession, but tensions between the European Union and the ruling Georgian Dream party have stalled the process.
The European Parliament also expressed concern about the results of the Georgian parliamentary elections and issued a resolution calling for a new vote. After the election, Prime Minister Orban visited Tbilisi and expressed his support for the Georgian government.
Is unanimity required to complete the process?
The Hungarian government has rejected the idea of changing the unanimity rule to facilitate Ukraine’s process, preferring to maintain its veto power, but Prime Minister Orbán has indicated in the past that he is willing to do so if there is an economic incentive.
At a tense EU summit in December 2023, Prime Minister Orbán walked out of a room where European leaders held private discussions, allowing him to press ahead with negotiations with Ukraine at 26 without Hungary’s veto.
Earlier in the week, the European Commission lifted 10.2 billion euros in frozen EU funds for Hungary, citing “some progress” on judicial reform.
At the time, the EU denied claims that the two decisions were related.
Two months later, at a summit in February 2024, Prime Minister Orban lifted his veto on the Ukraine Facility, allowing the EU to greenlight a 50 billion euro aid package for Kiev.
If Mr. Orbán loses power next year, when parliamentary elections are scheduled for April, there is a possibility that policies toward Ukraine’s accession will change dramatically under an opposition-led government.
