Cosmos 482 copy, Halfton, Cold War satellite. Credit: Wikimedia CC
The Cosmos 482, a Soviet spacecraft from the Cold War, is about to enter an unpredictable and uncontrollable Earth in 53 years orbit.
Launched for the Venus Mission in 1972, the spacecraft has not been released from Earth’s gravity and has since been turning without ground control. The drop capsule, which is roughly half a tonne of the washing machine’s size and weight, is expected to re-enter the atmosphere around 4am on Saturday, probably on the Western Hemisphere, with southern England re-entering its potential route.
It is designed to withstand Venus’ extreme temperatures of 477°C and bone-crushing pressure. However, due to its age, the parachute intended to land Venus does not deploy, raising concerns about the uncontrolled impact where no one can accurately predict it.
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Scientists, including Dr. Marcinpilinsky at the University of Colorado Boulder University, estimate the low risk to densely populated areas, as most of the Earth’s surface is inhabited by the ocean or sparsely. A more accurate prediction of the landing site is expected 24-48 hours before the impact.
The long orbit of the Kosmos 482 provides valuable data to model atmospheric drag and solar activity, supporting the US Space Force’s collision avoidance system. Meanwhile, experts in the field of orbital technology, such as Charles Constantial at University College London, warn that the number of satellites is increasing the risk of a cascade of collisions known as Kessler events, which can disrupt orbital infrastructure such as communication satellites.
As the world waits for a breath, in the final charge of Cosmos 482 to the final Earth, perhaps near or above Europe, its legacy exemplifies the challenges facing the management of space debris.
