Millions of Ukrainians across the country are bracing for another winter of blackouts and the possibility of blackouts as Russia resumes its annual campaign of attacks on the country’s energy grid.
But things look a little different this year, with analysts and officials saying the Russian government has shifted tactics and is now targeting specific regions, not just gas infrastructure.
In some areas, mainly in the east and close to the front lines, the season begins with generators humming, resulting in long periods of darkness without electricity or running water.
People are once again removing small power plants, charging numerous power banks and storing water bottles in the bathroom.
Russia has launched hundreds of drones, some equipped with cameras to improve targeting, making attacks more effective as they overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses, especially in weakly defended areas.
The effects are already changing daily life, especially for people who depend on electricity for survival.
For Zinaida Kot, who has been on dialysis for seven years, this is much more than just discomfort. When the electricity goes out, the machines that keep her alive stop working.
“It’s a terrible situation. I’m really worried if the electricity goes out,” she said from her hospital bed, connected to a dialysis machine powered by a generator that staff called “not reliable enough.”
“If there was no cure, I would die. I wouldn’t exist.”
Shostka power outage
In early October, Russian airstrikes cut off electricity, water and gas to the small northern town of Shostka.
The town is located only 50 kilometers from the front lines in the northern Sumy region. Gas has since been restored, and electricity has been restored for only a few hours each day.
“The situation is difficult,” said Shostka Mayor Mykola Noha. Electricity and water are currently provided on a schedule and are available for several hours each day.
“And power outages are unpredictable and really worry residents. You fix something and it gets destroyed again. This is our situation.”
Shostka hums with the low hum of a generator. It powers cafes, shops, homes and hospitals. Throughout the city, so-called “invincibility points” offer places where residents can charge and warm up their devices.
Local residents say the toughest times were when there was no gas, no heat or cooking methods, and people cooked their meals on the street over open fires.
At a local hospital, where all stoves are electric, staff built a simple wood-fired oven during the early stages of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, when the town was close to being captured.
And now it’s helping feed at least 180 patients, said Svitlana Zakotei, a nurse who oversees patient feeding.
The hospital has spent three weeks running generators, an expensive lifeline that consumes about half a ton of fuel a day, or about 250,000 hryvnia (5,145 euros) a week, said Ole Stolin, the hospital’s director. This is about the same amount as your regular monthly electricity bill.
Power is rationed. In dialysis wards, the lights are dimmed to provide electricity to the machines that keep patients alive.
One of the eight units burned out due to a power outage, and the hospital couldn’t afford to replace it quickly. Still, 23 patients come in every day for a few hours of treatment.
Russia’s new strategy
The Shostka crisis reflects a change in Russian strategy. In 2022-2023, Moscow launched massive missiles and drones across Ukraine, destabilizing Ukraine’s national power grid. However, this year, it is noticeable in each region.
Recent patterns show that attacks have become more intense in the Chernihiv, Sumy, and Poltava regions, while Kharkiv, Odessa, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk still face regular but less frequent attacks.
Chernihiv and parts of the region remained without power on Tuesday after Russia attacked the local power grid the night before, local officials said.
“Attack on national infrastructure has not been successful, because the protection of the infrastructure is much stronger and carriers know how to respond,” said Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center.
“So they decided to refocus and change tactics.”
He said frontline areas within about 120 kilometers of fighting are the most vulnerable.
“These are attacks against civilians that have nothing to do with war.”
And for Ukraine’s energy workers, that means repairing the same power lines and stations over and over again, from transmission towers to thermal power plants, while enduring power outages at home.
“But it’s our job. Who else would do it? No one else would do it,” said electrical engineer Bohdan Bilous. “I want to be optimistic and be prepared for any situation, but the reality is very cruel right now.”
Svitlana Kalish, a spokeswoman for the regional energy company in the Sumy region, said each repair worker is a target because of their proximity to the front lines.
“They know better how to attack,” she said of the Russians.
She explained that due to repeated attacks and the complexity of damage, there are fewer and fewer means of transmitting and distributing electricity. However, solutions are always being found to restore power.
Prepare for winter
The latest attack, carried out in the Chernihiv region on October 4, was more precise and destructive.
The substation building at the local switchyard has a neat hole in the roof near its center and another in the wall, a scar left by Shahed’s drone.
Sandbags around the building absorbed some of the shock waves, but they could not prevent a direct hit. It’s cold and dark inside the station, but it’s still only half full. Thousands of homes across Chernihiv continue to lack reliable electricity.
Workers are working to repair the damage, which would take weeks even under ideal conditions of few air raids and no new ones. Crew members must leave their stations each time an alarm sounds.
“If you look at this year, it’s the most difficult year,” said Serhiy Pereverza, vice president of local energy company Chernikovbrenergo.
“We hope for the best and are looking at alternative ways to supply our customers.”
Kharchenko noted that last year Russia did not have the ability to launch 500 or 600 drones at once, and small-scale attacks were largely ineffective.
But this year, even with several air defense points and task forces surrounding the facility, the Russian military simply overwhelmed it, sending about six drones to each defensive position and another 10 directly at the target.
“This year we’ve roughly tripled in size,” he said. “They’re breaking through individual sites with sheer volume and power.”
